Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
