A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
